Oscar Watch

This might be a little premature since the film isn't even out yet, but Warner Bros. has released a list of categories that they think they have a good chance of winning in. I took the liberty of indicating which awards were previously won by LOTR and in those which cases which part of the trilogy won.

Source: Herr Der Ringe Film

BEST PICTURE (ROTK)
CAROLYNNE CUNNINGHAM
ZANE WEINER
FRAN WALSH
PETER JACKSON

BEST DIRECTOR (ROTK)
PETER JACKSON

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (ROTK)
FRAN WALSH &
PHILIPPA BOYENS &
PETER JACKSON &
GUILLERMO DEL TORO

BEST ACTOR
MARTIN FREEMAN

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
IAN McKELLEN
RICHARD ARMITAGE
ANDY SERKIS

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
CATE BLANCHETT

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (FOTR)
ANDREW LESNIE, ACS, ASC

BEST ART DIRECTION (ROTK)
Production Designer
DAN HENNAH
Set Decorators
RA VINCENT
SIMON BRIGHT

BEST FILM EDITING (ROTK)
JABEZ OLSSEN

BEST COSTUME DESIGN (ROTK)
ANN MASKREY
RICHARD TAYLOR
BOB BUCK

BEST MAKEUP (FOTR, ROTK)
Armour, Weapons, Creatures and Special Makeup
RICHARD TAYLOR
Hair and Makeup Design
PETER SWORDS KING

BEST SOUND MIXING (ROTK)
Production Sound Mixer
TONY JOHNSON
Re-Recording Mixers
CHRISTOPHER BOYES
MICHAEL HEDGES
MICHAEL SEMANICK

BEST SOUND EDITING (TTT)
BRENT BURGE
CHRIS WARD

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (FOTR, TTT, ROTK)
JOE LETTERI
ERIC SAINDON
DAVID CLAYTON
R. CHRISTOPHER WHITE

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (FOTR, ROTK)
HOWARD SHORE

BEST ORIGINAL SONG (ROTK)
“Song of the Lonely Mountain”
Music by
NEIL FINN
DAVID DONALDSON
STEVE ROCHE
JANET RODDICK
DAVID LONG
Lyrics by
NEIL FINN
Performed and Produced by
NEIL FINN

I think that the acting awards are overly optimistic. LOTR's only nomination in those categories was Ian McKellen in FOTR for Best Supporting Actor, but he didn't win. I think part of the issue is that with a huge ensemble cast it's hard to single out individual performances. It's not even clear who would have qualified for Best Actor as a lead role, though with Bilbo in The Hobbit that will probably be less ambiguous. Still, the acting is unlikely to attract the most awards aside from those organizations who have a category for Ensemble Cast.

Another interesting point is that, as you may have noticed from the previous winners listed above, is that the bulk of LOTR's Oscar wins came from ROTK. It's generally thought that the Academy decided to wait and heap all its awards on ROTK, which made the biggest clean sweep in Oscar history, once the trilogy was completed. It will be interesting to see if they take a similar approach with The Hobbit. On the other hand, it's also possible that they'll consider the series already recognized and not pay as much attention to the prequels (which is basically what these films are being made as).

Also, I'm completely aware that the Oscars are extremely political and not an objective measure of quality. They can still be fun to follow and speculate about.

There having a laugh arent they?

Obviously the idea of The Hobbit winning all 16 of those categories is absurd, but on the other hand, Return of the King is tied for most Oscar wins for a single film (with Ben-Hur and Titanic) and LOTR as a whole holds the record for most Oscar wins for a film series. It's not crazy to think that The Hobbit stands a chance at winning several of the same awards, though as I mentioned above there are some reasons to think it might not be as sweeping as LOTR was.

My hunch is- if TH films put bums on seats and fill the coffers, sell 48frames and 3d to the masses- it will get another huge haul as Hollywood rewards PJ once more for helping temporarily stall the sinking ship that is cinema. And it will have little if anything to do with the merits of the films.
I mean they gave RotK best adapted screenplay- when even out of the three films is was clearly the worst adapted by a thousand miles and then some.

This might be a little premature since the film isn't even out yet

wheres Yooper?

The Hobbit is on a seven film shortlist for the Makeup and Hairstyling category. This is not a nomination but its the next step towards one.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/7-films-advance-winning-a-403033

At this point, it's unlikely that the film will win anything but technical awards like this. It might get a nomination for Best Picture since the number of nominees can be more than five now but it almost certainly won't win.

Having seen it I'll be surprised if it gets anything.

Me too. Must be a Golden Turkey award it could be up for.

I doubt it will win either. Its just ok to middling, nothing outstanding apart maybe for Gollum/Andy Serkis, and maybe Martin Freeman at a pinch. Certainly I havent seen it in 48, but I dont think everyone rates it.

The Hobbit picked up three nominations, all of them in technical categories.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

http://www.theonering.net/torwp/2013/01/10/68267-the-hobbit-snags-three-oscar-nominations-for-2013/

No real surprises here, though I think that starfish dwarf should have disqualified them from the hairstyling category. All three LOTR films nabbed the Best Visual Effects category though and I'd say The Hobbit is a strong contender there.

The other nominees in each category are:

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Marvel's The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables

I think Anna Karenina and Life of Pi, and les Miserables have a better chance of winning.

.

golden globe interview. also, does someone who is a native speaker understand who he is such a fan of?

It sounds to me like 'Robert Patterson' -whoever that is.

... it may also be Adele..

I think the reporter guy said "Patterson", but they're talking about Robert Pattinson, the guy who plays Edward in Twilight.

Also, holy crap, it's been over a year since I started watching Sherlock.

yeah... a year... three years for poor watson thouhg..... D:

Also, pattinson is actually awesome. of all the people who hate twilight, I think he hates it the most. he's such a perfect, sarcastic being.

Yeah, Pattinson is pretty hilarious when we criticizes Twilight. And I lolled when he gave an interview in GQ where he said he was allergic to vagina. I think he's just trolling the Twilight fandom at this point.

I know.. he was asked on the red carpet of the last twi-movie what his thoughts were and he said "I really need to go to the toilette" which I interpret "I am really done with this shit" xD

Fan: "If your character in Breaking Dawn could give your character in Twilight any piece of advice, what would it be?"
Robert Pattinson: Keep it in your pants.

more here: http://robquotes.tumblr.com

The Academy released a tribute to previous Best Picture winners. I had fun trying to recognize what the films were just from the images.

http://oscar.go.com/photos/themed-galleries/special/oscars-best-pictures-tribute/

Spoiler: