Re: We're all doomed! Doomed I say- the Corona virus thread for panicking in!

[David H]

Yeah, I suppose internet has brought big changes to those communities.
As you know, not everybody has good internet out here, and with the schools closed it's pretty challenging for some families. Imagine 3 kids all trying to do their homework on dad's smart phone with a connection that comes and goes! We're currently trying to figure out a way so that the local electric utility can put up a free wifi hotspot near the community hall parking lot so people can at least get online for basic needs.

[Lancebloke]

I think this resonates through most of the rest if the world too, with a few examples of the opposite.

I know lots of people in China and HK who were the first to go through this and the concern seems to be more "If we do this, then we do it properly."

My concern that was highlighted in previous Petty/Lancebloke engagements was whether this is actually sustainable long term given this is very much a global pandemic.

Europe could be free of covid in 2 months, but we will have to open up borders fully (some already are) and could just end up importing it back from the US or Latin America or the Middle East.

1 lockdown has done serious damage to our economy and will have massive long term impacts. I dont think we would be able to get through another without the kind of impacts we saw out of WW2 which essentially resulted in a crumbling empire and decades of rebuilding (with the poverty and increased mortality rates associated with that).

That is why I made the claim that it was possible the US and Brazil have the right attitude. 20 million dead in the US but coming out with a strong economy may save many more millions in the long term if it turns out no vaccine or effective treatment can be found soon.

[halfwise]

Don't be mistaken into thinking that in the case of America or Brazil it was the result of strategic planning like Great Britain's aborted attempt to reach herd immunity, or Sweden's definite choice to educate the public then let them decide what was appropriate to their own circumstances. Brazil's approach I believe was motivated purely by fears of recession in an economy that doesn't have enough credibility to mint its way out of trouble. America of course is led by that world-recognized symbol of careful planning and analysis, Donald Trump.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Good news for seperated couples in Scotland. }}

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Halfy re your post on Florida- I hope it works, but I fear it wont long term and that its a hell of a risky strategy.

"There are time lags between the peak numbers we're seeing reported and the consequences that get people into the ICU. So you're looking at this two- to three-week period," said Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo, director of infectious diseases..."What makes me very concerned is that we are already seeing a spike in ICU admissions in a place like Florida," she said. "And yet, the cases are continuing to climb. So, we're going to be facing another ICU demand surge in not that long a time."
Dr. Andrew Pastewski, the head intensive care unit physician at Jackson South Medical Center in Miami, is also seeing a surge in patients, he said.
"A week ago we had eight patients, none on a ventilator," Pastewski told CNN on Tuesday. "We were feeling like we were handling this well. We had a nice Covid floor, 24 beds with the capability of four ICU ventilators in that unit, so we thought we could use that as our Covid floor going forward. And within 10 days, we're now at over 40-plus patients, four on ventilators. We've had to find a second Covid unit and are looking for a third Covid unit right now."
The shift of the coronavirus pandemic to younger Americans is not necessarily good news, said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute.
Younger people are less likely to get sick and less like to die from the virus, Jha told CNN. But even if they aren't sick, they can infect others, he noted. "Those younger people have parents. They have grandparents, and they are going to go see those people," he said.
"The more the virus spreads, the more everybody is vulnerable."

So lets say i am not convinced yet it will work and not lead to further disaster down the line.
At a Uk level we haven't dealt with this well either- Boris cocked up the lockdown moving too slow, the test and trace app is a joke and doesnt even exist, and hes reopening England at a pace. I honestly believe that the devolved governments in NI, Scotland and Wales have saved many lives that had we all still been stuck under Westminister still would have been lost thanks to Boris' handling of events, and continue to be lost.
But America is doing so bad even Boris's government and now the EU are talking about banning all travel from the US- thats how bad the US has dealt with it- its making Boris look competent! }}

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Scotland reporting only 5 new cases today, lowest yet and first time its been in single figures.

Meanwhile in England....



Think we might need to consider shutting our border with them. Otherwise whats the point of getting our numbers down if they are just reimported from south of the border?
And I see Boris also wants to lift travel bans on several countries, which is madness. }}

[azriel]

Its naïve idiot thinking. For those who voted Boris in they should be sent to an off shore island ( with Boris & his entourage ) & fecking left there. Us simple peasant folk are doing as we are told & then you get news that this fecking numpty, our Prime Minister, is hopscotching his way down the road with a big lollypop in his hand giggling that it will be alright. I cant believe he has a single original thought in his head. He must have little dreams in his naps at mid morning, like the nursery kids do, & then acts out those nap time dreams. That's ok when your 5 yrs old & you have friends over but, how old is this twerp ?? Poor chap must be near to his last 50 bottles of Chablis so its back to work you go, earn those big fat dollars for uncle Boris If you feel ill, stay at home & die, don't worry, like ants there will be someone else to fill your place & the tax money coming in will never know a gliche. What a wonderful country we live in !

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Well done to my fellow Scots for sticking to the lockdown!

'Scotland is "not far away" from eliminating coronavirus, the country's first minister has predicted.
Nicola Sturgeon was speaking as she announced there have been no deaths from confirmed cases of the virus in the past 24 hours.
This was the first time the figure had been zero on a weekday since 20 March.
Ms Sturgeon said: "Suppressing the virus, driving it as far as we can towards total elimination, has to be our overriding priority.
We have made exceptional progress over the past three months, and the figures today highlight that.
But it has only been possible because the vast majority of us have stuck to the rules."
The first minister stressed that elimination was different from eradication, and was about "getting it to the lowest possible levels we can in a country".
She added: "It doesn't mean it has gone away, it doesn't mean it won't rise again if we stop doing the things we need to do, but it gives us more confidence that we can keep it under control.
"I think we are not that far away from that. The challenge is keeping it there."  - BBC

She is not wrong there. This is maybe the trickest time in some ways, we have to keep it down as we start to slowly and cautiously open back up a bit, and to do that we have to stick to rules- 2 metre distance, only seeing folk you have to, wear a msk in public, and we can beat this damn thing till a better solution comes along.
Unfortunately Boris seems determined to undo the hard work, announcing today that people in England can start going on holiday abroad to various EU countries soon, and they wont, and I repeat this to emphahsis just how fucking stupid it is, they wont be quarantened on their return. Which is utter madness. Especially as England doesnt have the virus even near squashed yet, nor do the proposed destinations, and thousands of English seem to think all cramming together on beaches is a good idea.

And meanwhile in Crazyville la-la Land formely known as the USA where their mad leader has said no to masks, no to lockdown and in fact no to anything sane whilst promoting insane ideas like injecting bleach, or that the virus will vanish  by magic-

'US infectious disease chief Dr Anthony Fauci says the nation has a "serious problem" as 16 states reel from a spike in Covid-19 cases.
The US hit an all-time daily high of 40,000 new infections on Thursday.
There are 2.4 million confirmed infections and 124,749 deaths nationwide - more than any other country.
In Texas, Florida and Arizona, reopening plans have been paused due to the spike.
Health officials in the US estimate the true number of cases is likely to be 10 times higher than the reported figure.
Dr Fauci added that if the spread was not stopped, eventually even the parts of the country doing well now would be affected.
Texas, which has been at the forefront of moves to end lockdown measures, has seen thousands of new cases, prompting Republican Governor Greg Abbott to call a temporary halt to its reopening on Friday.
Texas confirmed a record 5,996 new cases on Thursday, while there were also 47 more deaths reported, the highest daily toll for a month.
On Friday, Florida broke its own daily record for new infections, reporting 8,942 new cases. The previous record was 5,508, reported on Wednesday. The state now has a total of 122,960 recorded cases and 3,366 deaths.
Arizona has emerged as another epicentre of the crisis. Governor Doug Ducey, who had been giving businesses a "green light" to reopen, now says Arizona residents are "safer at home".
Other states, including Alabama, California, Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Wyoming, have all seen record daily increases in the number of confirmed cases this week.
California also reported a record number of new cases this week, with 7,149 confirmed on Wednesday.'- BBC News

And if it wasnt bad enough the President is completely insane, so too it would appear is the Vice-President-

'As health experts said more must be done to slow the spread, Vice-President Mike Pence praised US "progress".
The vice-president praised the nation's headway in handling the pandemic, noting "extraordinary progress"
Mr Pence also appeared to deny any link between states reopening and the increase in cases.

For god sake US forum members, ignore your elected representives, they are out their depth and dont know what they are doing. Stay in lockdown, wear a mask, keep 2 metres away from others. Please.

edit add- looks th EU doesnt fancy the state of things in the US much either-

'Travelers from the United States are "unlikely" to be allowed into the European Union'

With 'unlikely' being diplomat speak for 'no fucking chance'.

'An EU diplomat said-

"the US's chances are close to zero. With their infection rates ... not even they can believe in that possibility."

Which is diplomat speak for "We know Trumps a deluded madman, but even he cant be so insane as to think we will let Americans in given the state of the virus in the US.

Pity we are no longer members as Boris will probably let anyone in. }}

[halfwise]

Other countries should definitely not allow US visitors.

Some places which have done a good job with control are allowing outdoor dining and drinking (New York) or even 50% indoor capacity (Pennsylvania in some rural counties). I'm giving them the much needed support.

My parents who are in the second half of their 80's want me to visit them in Texas this august. At this rate it will be safer for me to visit from the previous world epicenter then to drop in then go out to town for a night.

[David H]

So Petty, do you remember asking me why I wouldn't trust our federal government to dictate a uniform health policy for all 50 states? Now that you see what it might look like do you blame me?
Meanwhile, my state is part of a block of 4 neighboring states that do have laws requiring masks, distancing, etc with a total population of something like 50 million. Yes, there are a few hot spots within the region where the numbers are still growing too fast, but those are being watched and getting special attention at the county level. It's not a perfect system but it's working, and I have a hard time imagining the feds doing this well by us
(especially as they're challenging Obamacare in the courts right now in the middle of a pandemic! )

You seem pretty happy that Scotland is devolved enough to make these decisions for themselves, so I wonder if maybe you'll see my point now?

[Pettytyrant101]

{{I am very happy to hear Dave that you are in a part of the US where they are inacting sensible rules and protections. And I'm all for devolving power closer to the people at local level- Id not only like a fully independent Scotland and Scottish government, but thats only the start, once achieved the next step is to devolve more powers down to local council level.
And no, I wouldnt trust your current federal government on this either, watching Pence yesterday was bizare, like he was talking about an alternative reality or something. And comparions here at least have been drawn to the press briefings given by the US government telling everyone it was all going swimmingly in Vietnam while everyone could see with their own eyes it really wasnt. Its that level of self delusion.
The problem I see in the US is that at the state level many of the decsions are being made primarily for partisan and political reasons, not health ones.
This is particularly true of Republican states where they are desperate to restart the economy and save Trump's Presidency. But the Democracts, whilst advocating the right things in terms of distancing, masks etc are using it as a political weapon too, encouraging mass gatherings and protests, again not primarily about health and the facts.
The end result has been catastrophic, with more deaths and infections than anywhere else in the world. Now sadly I think some countries will ovetake the US as it contionues to spread, but there should be no pride in the fact the US, the richest most powerful natin on Earth, is coping with this at about the same level as a third world country.
If you could get the crass politicing out of the decision making at state level Id be all for decisions on this being made more local and not at federal level.
But where its not happening, or decisions are being made for political purposes then thats where you really should have federal oversight and enforcement if necessary to make sure the rules and guidance given by the medical experts are followed.
Just unfortunate that currently the people of Amercia elected a madman to rule over them whose judgement cannot be trusted, or even taken seriously. Its a perfect shit storm sadly, one thats costing far too many Amercian lives.

On Obamacare, I really dont get why go after it now, with all this going on. And as I understand it polling shows that even among republicans views towards Obamacare have moved steadily towards being more postive. So it doesnt even seem a good strategy regards Trumps reelection. It might appeal to his hard core base, but he has them in the bag anyway. I dont see it appealing to broader America, those in the centre of politics, swing voters or independents. But maybe Im reading it wrong. }}

[halfwise]

Again, for Trump going after Obamacare is about revenge, first and foremost. That it aligns with his base is merely convenient. He can't stand being laughed at publicly with no chance to respond.

[azriel]

I liked it anyway

[halfwise]

Here Petty, something for you to ruminate over.  Sorry about the scale for cases, I can't adjust that.







If you look closely you will see that the UK eventually started doing better than the US once the infection rate had dropped.  Have to keep an eye on that.  But per 100,000 people I don't see the US getting worse than the UK over time: that's a lot of ground to make up.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ probably shouldnt say UK as thats misleading- should say England.
If that chart were for Scotland itd look a lot different, at the 'today' line for example our deaths would be 0. And we took a very different approach to Boris.
The fear for America, shared by many of americas own health experts is that you will start to spike again, as the incubation period can be 4-6 weeks and so many fok have ignored the advice to wear masks and social distance.
Not sure about that last chart either, as what it says are todays infection rates in the US seem lower than whats being reported in the news for current infection rates.

Thats why the EU is banning travel from the US still- the daily cases per 100,00 across the EU is 14, in the US its 105. But that 2nd chart is closer to zero than 100 which seems well out. }}

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ I also see VP 'everything is fine, nothing to see here' Pence has cancelled his trips to Florida and Arizona because of the uptick in cases in those states.

'“Vice President Pence will no longer participate in campaign events in Arizona and Florida this week,” a spokesman close to Pence told Fox News Saturday. “This is related to coronavirus numbers increasing in those states.”
Pence’s decision comes just hours after Florida reported a record new high in daily coronavirus cases -- marking it the third time this week a new record was broken.
The Florida Department of Health reported more than 9,500 new cases of coronavirus Saturday, surpassing Friday’s record high on nearly 9,000 new cases.'- Fox

Although my favourite line from that Fox report, and its laced with underlying criticism, unusual for Fox when talking about a Republican VP, was the final line of the last paragraph- }}

'Pence began his campaign tour this week in Wisconsin where he said, "Some 40 states just like Wisconsin are opening up again."
Masks, temperature checks and hand sanitizer were distributed as attendees entered the event, but few masks were reportedly worn.
"We forfeited some of our personal freedom for the health of our families and our neighbors first, and we know we're going to continue to use common sense," Pence said before shaking hands with attendees without wearing a mask.'

[halfwise]

Actual cases are hard to get a handle on, but it mirrors the death rate. Before the crossover in late June it would have made sense for the EU to ban travel from the UK. Right now the US case rate varies widely by state, but most go through NYC so a country wide ban is in order.

[David H]

{{ probably shouldnt say UK as thats misleading- should say England.
If that chart were for Scotland itd look a lot different, at the 'today' line for example our deaths would be 0. And we took a very different approach to Boris. }}

In the same way I'd prefer not to be lumped with much of the rest of the USA, please!

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Its quite hard here Dave, without a lot of fapping about, to get accurate numbers or charts for individual areas in the US. News here has a tendency to only report states whee its going tits up. And for the rest its just overall US numbers.
As a result I have to resort to US news (if you can call it that!) like Fox and CNN (in an attempt to get some balance from both sides of the political divide) but Fox have effetively stopped reporting the figures altogether, and CNN, much like the BBC rarely seem to drill right down into the figures and tend to give overall US figures more commonly, or again staes where its all gone pear shaped.
In fact, for your bit of the US Dave, you have provided more information than any news outlet Ive read, so thank you for that. }}

[David H]

Actually the Guardian's board is pretty good for state-by-state data Petty.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/jun/18/coronavirus-map-us-latest-cases-state-by-state.

If you're interested in seeing how it plays out on the county level, here's our state's Dept. of Health website with dashboard.
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard
Many states have them. It lets you see the "brushfires" while they're still controllable. Yakima county is our worst hotspot right now because of a large seasonal influx of migrant agricultural labor, and so resources are being focused there to contain and control.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{{ The Guardian link doesnt work- says page doesnt exist! But the Guardian web page is subscription anyway in the UK- is it free in the US? If so Ill use my VPN and see if I can fool it!
The Washington State one works fine though- thanks for it. Very handy. }}

[David H]

The Guardian (US) is free here, though they regularly have a popup banner that asks for support.
https://www.theguardian.com/us
If you get on, just scroll down to the "Coronavirus US" bar and you'll see the map I linked to on the right.

[halfwise]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

It has worldwide data.  Doesn't go down to city level.

[azriel]

https://www.facebook.com/boris.shamilov.58/videos/140095954181714/

Me, as soon as shops open & it reaches some sort of normality

[Pettytyrant101]

{{{ }}